Why Is Cyprus Safe Despite All the Threats? The Coexistence of Security and Risk

When I read the comments under social media posts evaluating the Iran–Israel war through the Cyprus axis, I noticed that the discussion had been dragged into a rather narrow and unproductive point.

Two main views stood out in the comments. One side argued that the threat Cyprus currently faces in this tension stems from the foreign policy pursued by Republic of Cyprus; the other side claimed that the real reason the island is at risk is the sovereign British bases, and therefore that the only party responsible is the British.

Yet it is difficult to say that either of these two approaches alone is sufficient to explain the situation. I believe one of the most balanced assessments on this issue was made by Prof. Dr. Kudret Özersay. As Özersay also pointed out, both the presence of military bases and the foreign policy pursued by Republic of Cyprus in recent years play a role in Cyprus becoming a target today.

For this reason, reducing the debate to a one-dimensional dilemma such as “the bases or foreign policy?” makes it harder to see the security equation Cyprus is currently facing.

Republic of Cyprus’ Changing US-Oriented Foreign Policy

In recent years, it has become possible to say that military and security cooperation between Republic of Cyprus and the West has become more visible in its foreign policy. Since the period of Nicos Anastasiades, a clear US- and West-oriented direction has drawn attention. During this process, a new network of relations emerged especially through military infrastructure and security cooperation.

Although the sovereign British bases on the island are considered United Kingdom territory, it is important to remember that American, British, and Greek aircraft patrolling the region do not take off only from Akrotiri, but also from Andreas Papandreou Air Base in Paphos.

In recent years, the base in Paphos has come up more frequently within the scope of military cooperation developed with the United States, and it is also a fact that the US has been continuing infrastructure works in this area for the use of its own aircraft. This picture not only shows that Republic of Cyprus is deepening its military relations with the Western security architecture, but also helps explain why threats directed at Cyprus are gaining significance.

Which Came First: The Chicken or the Egg?

Although the recent target of drone attacks originating from Iran or Lebanon may have been the sovereign British base in Akrotiri, since the start of the war in Gaza, Iran-backed organisations such as Hamas and Hezbollah have at times stated that they could target Cyprus on the grounds that it hosts US military elements.

Therefore, the military presence on the island is not only part of the regional security architecture; it also stands out as one of the factors making Cyprus a more visible element in regional tensions.

Despite all this, why is Cyprus still a safe place?

However, reading the security debate in Cyprus only through military bases would also be an incomplete assessment. Republic of Cyprus is a member of the European Union. Turkey, Greece, and the United Kingdom, the guarantors of the Republic, are NATO members.

In this context, although both the foreign policy pursued by Republic of Cyprus and the British bases push the island into a dangerous position, the island’s security is also being maintained in parallel with the threat.

For this reason, it is not enough to explain the security risk Cyprus faces solely through the British bases, nor solely through the foreign policy of Republic of Cyprus.

To sum up, rather than debating among ourselves whether “the bases or foreign policy” are responsible, I believe we should focus on the factors that create this risk and stop treating those who put our island at risk as though they are completely innocent.